Reading the Ripples

"By a small sample, we may judge of the whole piece."

- Miguel de Cervantes, Don Quixote

One of the key tenets that underpin the soccer analytics movement (and data science in general) is the concept of "noise" in small sample sizes. You can't utilize a small sample as a reliable predictor of future performance. Don Quixote is one of the most delusional figures in the Western canon, and not just for his "small sample" take.

But that doesn't render early-season performance completely meaningless, particularly when a team is under the direction of a new coach and has lots of new players bedding in.

What can the league table and underlying data tell us about the Triumph through our first four games in USL League 1? Where do we stack up in the league? How are we playing, and is it very different from last season? Who are the most impactful players at this point?

Where do we stack up?

Well, the easiest answer is 6th, because that's where Greenville sits in the table with 6 points as of April 17. However, some League 1 teams have played 6 games, while others have played only 3 (Greenville has played 4 games).

When looking at the far more instructive points-per-game standings, Greenville also finds itself 6th of 17 teams, with 1.5 points earned per game.

That feels about right.

The Triumph have been a solid team, but haven't felt quite at the level of the top teams in the division. Greenville was probably the better team in all of their first three games (against teams ranked 7th, 9th and 12th above), winning two and losing one. But a tough away game against Naples played out very differently, and the 1-0 defeat largely flattered the Triumph.

The underlying numbers in 2026 look even brighter, however, as American Soccer Analysis (ASA) has the Triumph at 7.24 expected points, a metric that is basically an estimate of the number of points a team "deserves" based on the quality of chances created and chances conceded. Greenville, in fact, has the highest xPts per game across the league, while the teams above them in the table have been far more fortunate.

Dave Dixon has the team playing at a high level very early in his tenure, particularly considering the injuries and absences that he has had to navigate. According to ASA, Greenville is producing 1.72 expected goals per game, which is 5th in the league, while only conceding 1.11 expected goals against, a rate that ranks as the 4th stingiest in USL League 1.

If the Triumph continue to rank in the top third of the league in both of those metrics, then this team will finish very high in the standings and be a title threat.

How are we playing and is it very different from last season?

Greenville's playing style thus far has not been starkly different from last year's style, at least to my eye. The Triumph are averaging just a tick under 402 successful passes per game, and completing those passes at a 79% success rate. Over the course of 2025, the Triumph averaged just under 395 passes per game and completed 80% – not the level of variance one would expect from a new coach who talked quite a lot in the offseason about being more vertical.

But look under the hood, and the difference in playing style is easier to discern. Greenville is currently averaging 9.04 yards of vertical distance per pass completed. That represents an uptick from 7.91 yards in 2025, so the team has demonstrated a bit more forward thrust with their passing in the early phase of this season.

Quite honestly, the most obvious differences so far this campaign are that the attack looks far more likely to put the ball in the back of the net, and the press looks far more effective from the front. Azzad Liadi is a big part of those differences.

Who are the most impactful players at this point?

Liadi, for sure. He has 2 goals, 2 assists, and 6 chances created in 4 games. That's incredible production from the new striker, and his ability as a pressing monster has already swung one game (Westchester).

I mentioned this in an earlier post, but Liadi can do so many things at a high level that it makes life easier for his teammates. He's a force multiplier in his early days in the green of the Triumph.

Bill Simmons often uses the analogy of a table for sports. Some players bring lots of things to the table. Some players bring little. And some players take things off the table. Liadi brings a lot of skills to the table, and takes nothing off. His versatility as an attacker can allow a coach to implement many different gameplans or change approaches within a single game without having to substitute his striker.

His finishing, his movement in behind, his ability to move wide, his playmaking, his hold-up play, and especially his pressing ability – all of these are valuable skills in the Triumph's quiver.

Newly acquired Deshane Beckford has also shone in his appearances, generating 4 key passes, a goal and an assist across only 204 minutes of playing time. Beckford has accumulated limited goal contributions since his breakout season in 2021 with Colorado Springs, but he looks ready to play a key role in the Upstate this season, and has demonstrated chemistry with Liadi in attacking interplay and pressing coordination. Beckford is also a whole lot of fun to watch, utilizing his low center of gravity and explosive, jitterbug athleticism to make opposing defenders look foolish.

Another new face that has impressed is Patrick Seagrist. The enterprising left back has delivered 6 key passes and an assist in 279 minutes of game time. His two-way ability is evident, and though he's had a few clunky moments in the defensive third, his range of passing has more than made up for it. Greenville has needed a proper Tyler Polak succession plan for two or three years, and Seagrist is the first player to rise to that challenge.

Less surprising has been the chance creation of Connor Evans. Last season he led the league in chances created and benefited from unaware opponents. I'm sure opposing coaches now have Evans bulleted on their scouting reports, yet he continues to carve out chances from deeper midfield. Evans leads the Triumph with 9 key passes and has been unlucky not to record an assist so far in 2026.

Rodrigo Robles has continued his strong form from last season into the early weeks of this campaign, and has flashed his superb finishing ability by scoring 2 goals on only 3 shot on target. He has also delivered 4 key passes in 323 minutes. In concert with Liadi and Beckford, Robles has helped bridge the team through a period of limited attacking depth due to injuries.

-The Triumph do not play again until next weekend when they face off against Pittsburgh in their USL Cup opener on April 25. It will have been three full weeks since they last took the field. The long layoff will have allowed some players to heal up, and for the coaching staff to implement new ideas and tactical tweaks and to address any evident weaknesses.

The early returns have been promising, and the new era is off to a positive start. But we will learn a lot about this team across a challenging May, with an away game at Omaha (May 2) and an away game in Knoxville (May 29) on the docket. If the Triumph can maintain this tactical identity through that gauntlet, the rest of the league should be very concerned.